Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 141737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER COLOMBIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W STARTING THIS EVENING UNTIL 1200 UTC MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N22W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 20W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NW CUBA AND ENTERS THE BASIN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 22N84W TO 23N88W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 29N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN. THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NW CUBA AT THIS TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BUILDING ACROSS THIS AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS MAINLY W OF 77W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF 68W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS W HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N60W TO 23N80W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N58W TO 21N71W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE TROUGH WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION N OF 25N. TO THE SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N41W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 34W-40W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N28W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

Home