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AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 5N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 3N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-2S BETWEEN 1W-25W...AND FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 27W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 31N81W. 10 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND W OF TAMPICO MEXICO... BUT NOT OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N78W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N84W TO S NICARAGUA AT 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 86W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 74W-80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES OVER E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N49W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N55W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N51W WITH MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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