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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
721 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23w from 16N southward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated to widely scattered from 04N to 11N between Africa and 32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 21N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N to 22N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 17N southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 11N to 13N between 48W and 52W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 15N southward between 47W and 53W.

A Caribbean Sea NW-to-SE oriented tropical wave is along 22N68W, across Puerto Rico, to 17N66W, to 11N65W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 20N to 26N between 60W and 70W.

The position of a second Caribbean Sea tropical wave was adjusted based on satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics, in order to be along 77W/78W, from SE Cuba across Jamaica, to the eastern part of Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered strong in eastern sections of Honduras. isolated moderate in the coastal waters of Honduras and Nicaragua.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of SW Senegal near 12N17W, to 11N22W, to 13N36W and 10N52W. The ITCZ continues from 10N52W to 09N61W in NE Venezuela. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 14N southward between Africa and 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N90W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers Florida and the Gulf of Mexico from 85W eastward, with the 31N77W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward. rainshowers are possible from 24N southward.

A surface ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W, into the coastal plains of Mexico.

A thermal trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD, and FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MVFR: at KEHC, KMDJ, and KMIS. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate elsewhere from 25N northward from 85W westward. TEXAS: MVFR in Edinburg. MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain in Lafayette. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in McComb. MVFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. FLORIDA: nearby rainshowers and thunder are in multiple parts of the Pensacola metropolitan area. earlier rain and thunder have ended for the moment in Milton. earlier rain and drizzle have ended for the moment in Mary Esther. MVFR in Destin. light rain in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. nearby rain and thunder in Perry and in Cross City. nearby rain and thunder are in parts of the Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area, and in Sarasota.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between the Mona Passage and NW Cuba. Convective precipitaiton: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 21N between the Windward Passage and 82W in the Caribbean Sea.

A NW-to-SE oriented tropical wave is along 22N68W, across Puerto Rico, to 17N66W, to 11N65W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 20N to 26N between 60W and 70W.

The position of a second tropical wave was adjusted based on satellite imagery and tropical wave diagnostics, in order to be along 77W/78W, from SE Cuba across Jamaica, to the eastern part of Panama. Convective precipitation: scattered strong in eastern sections of Honduras. isolated moderate in the coastal waters of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in parts of eastern Honduras and its coastal waters.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the easternmost part of the area, to the E and SE of the trough/ cyclonic wind flow.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia and beyond 86W in NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: numerous strong is in Colombia from 08N to 10N between 74W and 78W, including in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Isolated moderate to strong elsewhere from 11N southward.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.40 in Guadeloupe.

Hispaniola is on the eastern side of an upper level trough. The trough extends from a 31N77W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center. Upper level southerly wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that either southerly wind or cyclonic wind flow will cover Hispaniola during the first 24 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. A trough either will be to the west of Hispaniola, or it will be on top of the area. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge. An inverted trough will move across the area during day one. NE-to-E wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area, with Hispaniola on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 240 nm to the east of the coast of Georgia. The cyclonic wind flow that surrounds the cyclonic center covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas, and parts of Cuba and Hispaniola and the northern parts of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 27N to 29N between 78W and 80W, and in the coastal waters of the Florida west coast in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N to 30N from 85W eastward. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 70W and interior sections of Florida, and also in the rest of the coastal waters of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center and associated trough are about 1525 nm to the west of the Western Sahara in Africa. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 40W and 50W, and from 23N northward between 50W and 60W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N27W, to 28N40W, to a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 28N65W, to 27N78W just to the north of the NW Bahamas,across south Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ MT

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