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AXNT20 KNHC 021031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N45W TO 3N46W MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES/E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N60W TO 10N63W MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 59W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 62W-66W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N20W 7N28W TO 8N34W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N40W TO E OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N- 11N BETWEEN 39W-50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 18W-26W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 25N87W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY CONTINUING TO 28N85W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR PENSACOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 85W-89W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE EXITING THE GULF LATE THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND REACH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY SUN MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA ALONG 14N69W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 81W-85W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA E OF 83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY SAT NIGHT.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE THU THROUGH EARLY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N67W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 28N65W 26N72W TO 27N77W WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 28N79W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE THEN CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH AND W OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO 29N53W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N71W ALONG 28N64W TO BEYOND 32N60W AND AND FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 46W- 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N43W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N30W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N56W TO 26N67W THEN BECOME DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 27N74W EARLY FRI BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW PORTIONS SAT REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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