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AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 17W-23W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N13W TO 04N26W TO 03N38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR 33N97W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WEST TO 28N86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS N OF 25N E OF 86W. FARTHER WEST...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N86W INTO THE LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 300 NM SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 22N98W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND THE EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BASIN...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEDNESDAY...BEGIN TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.


...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE VICINITY OF 43N62W. THE LOW SUPPORTS THE PARENT 988 MB SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED 996 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W TO 27N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS POISED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEDNESDAY AND DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N-NE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS BY FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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