AXNT20 KNHC 301715

205 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 1500 UTC, Bonnie was downgraded to a post-tropical remnant low over coastal South Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms are well removed from the low center from 30N to 31N between 78W and 80W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 13N13W to 03N12W moving W at around 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 10W and 18W and 850 mb relative vorticity along the northern portion of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 07W and 15W.

Tropical wave extends from 13N35W to 05N32W moving W at an estimated 15 to 20 kt. This wave is noted in 700 mb global model fields at the leading edge of a low to mid-level easterly jet on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time. A Saharan air layer is noted northeast of this wave.

Tropical wave extends from 12N47W to 02N49W moving W at around 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 45W and 53W. This wave is embedded at the western end of a broad area of deep moisture over the central Atlc. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 46W and 57W.

Tropical wave extends from 15N78W to 05N75W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northwestern South America and portions of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 11N to 17N between 73W and 78W. This convection is likely being enhanced by the presence of a middle to upper level trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 05N24W, where the ITCZ begins and extends to 04N30W to 02N40W to 01N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from the Equator to 08N between 37W and 44W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered near 29N89W and supports gentle to moderate winds over the Gulf northwest of a line from 28N96W to 22N89W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are over the southwestern Gulf, especially near a thermally induced surface trough that as of 1200 UTC extended from 22N94W to 18N94W. A shortwave trough over Texas/Oklahoma supports a cluster of thunderstorms over the extreme northwestern Gulf north of 27N, west of 95W. The shortwave is forecast to lift northeast and away from the region through Tuesday, which will help to lessen chances for convection over the northwestern Gulf. Otherwise, little change is forecast over the Gulf basin over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough extends from north of the Bahamas to central Cuba to the southwestern Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence dominates the northwest Caribbean northwest of the trough axis. The interaction of the base of this trough with a westward moving tropical wave supports convection over the central and southwestern Caribbean. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details. Deep moisture over the eastern Caribbean supports showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. Mainly gentle to moderate trade winds cover the Caribbean today, except for locally fresh over the southeastern Caribbean. Over the next 24 hours deep moisture combined with the middle to upper trough will support showers and thunderstorms across the central Caribbean and Greater Antilles.

...HISPANIOLA... A middle to upper level trough with an axis to the west of the area will support enhanced coverage of showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola for the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Bonnie has been downgraded to a post tropical remnant low. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A broad middle to upper trough extends from north of the Bahamas to central Cuba. A reflection of this upper trough in the form of a surface trough extends from near 30N73W to 22N74W. Clusters of moderate convection are within 120 nm of the trough axis. Scattered thunderstorms are over the central and northern Bahamas. Another surface trough extends from 27N68W to 24N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm of either side of the trough axis. Farther east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 30N42W to 28N56W. No deep convection is noted. A surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1023 mb surface high centers near 26N46W and 28N28W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc. Three tropical waves are over the tropical Atlc. Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.

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