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000
AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 17N36W to 06N40W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-21N between 34W-42W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 19N66W to 08N68W, moving W at 5 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There is a well defined surface trough, and a broad 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are S of Puerto Rico within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 21N76W to 08N77W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 15N-21N between 74W-79W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 06N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N24W to 10N37W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 09N41W to 07N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Atlc, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 19W-22W, and from 08N-11N between 58W-62W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over Tennessee near 36N84W producing surface ridging over the N Gulf of Mexico. A Surface trough is over the NW Gulf from 28N96W to 24N96W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough axis from 25N-29N between 91W-96W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate convection is W of the trough axis from 17N-22N between 89W-92W. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 92W. Strong subsidence is over the E Gulf and Florida E of 87W. Expect moderate to occasional fresh E-NE winds over the Gulf through Saturday as the surface ridge remains in place.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. In addition, a 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 10N80W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 78W-84W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the W Caribbean near 17N82W with abundant upper level moisture. Scattered moderate convection is all along the S coast of Cuba. Expect the tropical waves to move W with convection. Also expect fair weather over Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands over the next 24 hours.


...HISPANIOLA...

Hispaniola is presently between tropical waves with fair weather. Expect showers and convection from the approaching tropical wave to mostly slip south of the island over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N67W. A quasi-stationary front extends SW from the low to the N Bahamas at 25N76W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm E of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N49W to 26N52W. scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N33W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic with axis along 78W. Upper level diffluence E of the axis is enhancing the convection over the W Atlantic. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 22N40W producing scattered showers within 120 nm of the center.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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