000
AXNT20 KNHC 261648
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1648 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 07N16W. An ITCZ extends
from 07N16W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 04N-09N east of 31W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and western Panama.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas. A
prefrontal trough and the front are supporting numerous moderate
convection over the area. A surface trough across the Bay of
Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate convection. Fresh to
strong NE winds are found over the NW Gulf along with seas 5 to 7
ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail with 1 to 3 ft seas.
For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the NW Gulf
before noon and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The merged cold
fronts should extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the
Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf
to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front
with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return
flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking
ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat
night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the Gulf of
Honduras. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the
Bermuda High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea
is forcing fresh to strong trades with locally near gale and seas
of 8-12 ft across most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW
Caribbean are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong
trades across all but NW portions of the basin, with locally near
gale winds off Colombia through Thu morning, then gradually
diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high
shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean
on Fri afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front
should stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula
by Sat morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by
Sat evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the
weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N40W to 26N59W with
moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft along the front
east of 41W. A prefrontal trough is present from 31N37W to
24N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along these
features. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping
to sustain fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in
the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds
with seas 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic.
Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-9 ft
within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the
aforementioned front east of 65W will diminish later today, as
the front dissipates. A 1031 mb Bermuda High to the north of the
front will help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds in the
approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before
diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold front will emerge off of
the NE Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong N to NE
winds behind the front. The cold front should extend from 31N72W
to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W to the central
Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N57W to the
central Bahamas by Sat night. A tight pressure gradient in the
wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across
much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to
east Sun.
$$
KRV
