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AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STARTING TO APPEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS PRESENT FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR SO AFTER STARTING. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N60W 14N61W 9N61W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 67W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 89W/90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N NORTHWARD.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 7N30W AND 8N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 49W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 27N...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W... TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 30N28W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N50W...28N74W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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