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AXNT20 KNHC 271729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA/THE GULF OF HONDURAS...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 22N78W TO 18N85W. EXPECT GALE FORCE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET SOUTH OF 18N...WEST OF 85W...AND W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH 0600 UTC FRIDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W TO 7N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 27W AND 44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...EXTREME W ATLANTIC...AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N84W ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N88W TO THE S TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N97W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA WITHIN 100NM OF THE HIGH CENTER...NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN...WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE AND OVER THE GULF WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO 16N85W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 18N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. NORTH TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 19N. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 21N62W IS PROVIDING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. EAST TO NE SURFACE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES E TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE WEAKENING. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FRONTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA... MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...AND UPPER LOW TO THE NE OVER THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY AND OVER SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N69W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 21N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 62W. A LARGE 1031 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N43W AND COVERS THE BASIN S OF 31N E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 31N62W TO W CUBA INCLUDING THE E BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS WITH CONVECTION. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NW OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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