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000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 0N20W TO 2S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-22W...AND FROM 3S- 5S BETWEEN 27W-31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4S BETWEEN 35W-40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95 TO 19N94W. DENSE FOG IS NOTED ALONG AND NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH EITHER OF THESE FEATURES. EASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNTIL WED EVENING. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO 29N78W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N24W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W MOVING W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LARGE PART OF THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 31N AND EXTEND FROM 31N57W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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