Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR W ATLC AT 26/1200 UTC THROUGH 18 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND ACROSS S FL. STRONG S TO SW WINDS UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W TO 7N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GULF ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N84W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN IS CLOUD FREE WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW BASIN. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. THE NW BASIN NEARER TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NE BASIN THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FL AND SE GULF...CROSSING OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 17N87W AND THEN THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 70 NM OF 15N68W. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NW AT 10 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE NW WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND ACROSS S FL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N48W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 22N44W TO 17N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 41W AND 54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 M OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REST OF THE BASIN FROM 15N TO 31N IS DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER WITH A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N42W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

Home