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AXNT20 KNHC 192331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GONZALO HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 19/2100 UTC NEAR 51.6N 41.8W OR ABOUT 485 NM NE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUST TO 85 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 52N-58N BETWEEN 33W- 43W. PLEASE SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N41W TO 05N44W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DECREASE ON THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING W SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 40W-46W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N18W AND CONTINUES TO 08N25W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N25W TO 09N27W TO 11N39W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 06N44W TO 05N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 44W-45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N98W TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 24N W OF 93W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SUPPORTED BY UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N66W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 25N67W TO 23N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AT AROUND 75 NM SE OF THIS BOUNDARY. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-55W. A 997 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 33N20W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 20N30W AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N30W TO 32N55W. CLUSTERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 42W-51W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W KEEPING A DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RIVERA

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