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AXNT20 KNHC 201720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 7N30W TO 7N45W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 60W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR 31N84W WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NE WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OCCURRING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC...AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE BASIN. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHERN BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS ARE ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N80W. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N63W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF 67W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE NW BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD W WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 38N17W IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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