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AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 2N27W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 23W-31W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE GULF E OF 90W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N93W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 95W. WHILE IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOS PRES NEAR 31N79W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE OF TSTMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 26N BETWEEN 76 AND 77W. BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ DGS

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