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AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W- 47W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W- 83W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W. A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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