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AXNT20 KNHC 122323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N10W AND CONTINUES TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N38W. TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS NEAR 01N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 15N83W TO 20N73W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND BETWEEN 75W-80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL PICK UP SPEED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STARTING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT OVER W ATLANTIC WATERS EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO NW HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N30W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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