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AXNT20 KNHC 301045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N43W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER LACKS ANY ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 43W-47W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 17N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL...850 MB-700 MB...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS AN AREA TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALSO COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 20W-29W. IN ADDITION...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 19N51W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N43W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A 700 MB TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 14N19W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N25W TO 09N29W TO 11N39W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N43W TO 07N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENGE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 06N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 11W- 15W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 29W-34W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 27N87W TO 28N91W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N82W TO 26N89W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1018 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N94W AND 23N84W PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SE GULF MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS TODAY AND GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FOCUSED ON BOTH SIDES OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N78W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...OTHERWISE... THE ONLY OTHER CONVECTION OCCURRING IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 76W-84W...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 58W- 62W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE ISLAND REMAINS WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO THE W-SW NEAR 18N78W. GIVEN THE OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W THEN SW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N79W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. FARTHER EAST... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N66W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED NEARLY IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-68W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N54W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO 30N50W TO 22N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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