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AXNT20 KNHC 301756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N32W TO 10N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 06N30W. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TPW THAT DEVIATES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 18N69W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 75W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 04N31W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 29W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 39W AND 56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY WELL INLAND OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COASTLINE OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...SUPPORTED BY THE SHORTWAVE. DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N93W TO 18N93W...MOVING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE NORTHERN GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W TO 80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED UNDER THIS REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 75W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE ISLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 31N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N69W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 67W. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N49W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THESE FEATURES DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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