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000
AXNT20 KNHC 161742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough exits the Liberia coast near 05N09W to 03N16W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 00N36W. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate and isolated strong are evident
from 01S to 06N between 01W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

1032 mb high pressure centered along the New England coast is
generally maintaining 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow across
the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are a little stronger and from SE to S
along the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Veracruz to the
Rio Grande. A broad upper level ridge continues to reside over
the Gulf. This ridge will be strong enough to hold an upper-level
trough currently approaching from the west over Mexico at bay.
This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through
Tuesday night as the ridge remains in place. The next front to
approach the Gulf will reach the coast of Texas Tuesday evening,
but it is then expected to stall beneath deep layer SW flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt trade winds continue over the Caribbean. The strongest
winds located in the usual place along the northern coast of
Colombia. Satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers
over Puerto Rico advecting WSW to W across the basin. In the
upper levels, a weak upper level trough crosses the Caribbean
from Hispaniola to Panama. Strong subsidence covering the entire
Caribbean continues to suppress deep convection. Expect similar
surface wind conditions through Tuesday night, then low pressure
moving eastward from the United States east coast will weaken the
ridge to the north of the Caribbean, allowing winds to subside
slightly.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over the island and adjacent
coastal waters. Winds will subside slightly on Wednesday as the
ridge to the north weakens. Otherwise, expect isolated showers to
continue through Wednesday while the NE flow persists.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is sagging slowly south from 32N53W to 29N67W to the
coast of South Carolina near 32N81W. Scattered showers are
present along and up to 90 nm north of the front to the east of
62W. A surface trough curves northeast from just off the coast of
Suriname at 06N54W to 10N49W. Isolated moderate convection is seen
from 05N to 08N between 51W and 56W. A nearly stationary boundary
stretches north-northeastward from 21N36W to 32N30W. An upper
level trough over the central Atlantic from 35N29W to 26N30W
supports the stationary front. Expect over the next 24- 48 hours
for the cold front over the W Atlantic to continue slowly moving
southward. The front will begin to dissipate west of 60W.
Scattered showers will continue along the front to the east of
60W. The stationary front over the central Atlantic will dissipate
as its upper-level support lifts out to the northeast.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy

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