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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N17W TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SW TO A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER OF 1027 MB JUST S OF APALACHICOLA NEAR 29N85W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF TONIGHT. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE US EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS S OF THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W TO 19N77W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES W OF 19N77 TO NEAR 17N87W. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE JUST S OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE AND THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE SHEAR LINE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 25N65W TO 21N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECONDARY TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS 32N63W TO 28N67W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N42W TO 20N40W AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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