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000
AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES TO 03N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N34W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL COASTAL WATERS NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N ALONG BOTH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NE WATERS NEAR 26N87W. LIGHT AND GENTLE VARIABLE WIND COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT OFF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHERE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED. WATER VAPOR AND CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SAT WHEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES DISSIPATES OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. THEN...AN ELONGATED RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL PROVIDE NE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW IS W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 84W. WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTEN IN THE SW BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TRADE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W SW TO NW HAITI TO NICARAGUA NE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SW N ATLC...W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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