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000
AXNT20 KNHC 281756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. The wave is in a large
area of cyclonic wind flow.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N44W 14N43W 05N41W,
moving westward 20 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 08N to 20N between 30W and 48W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 19N
southward moving westward 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from
08N to 12N between 55W and 61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough passes through parts of Senegal and the coastal
areas of Guinea-Bissau, to 10N22W, 05N30W, and 05N33W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N33W to 06N42W 06N30W, and 05N50W. Convective
precipitation elsewhere: scattered moderate to isolated strong
along the coast of Sierra Leone within a 30 NM radius of 07N12W,
from 05N to 08N between 32W and 36W, and from 04N to 06N between
40W and 44W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 02N to 08N.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The middle level to upper level inverted trough from 24 hours ago
has moved westward into the southwestern corner of the gulf of
mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
24N southward from 86W westward. A surface trough passes through
northeastern Florida, into the eastern sections of the Gulf of
Mexico, beyond northwestern Cuba, into the northwestern corner of
the Caribbean Sea.

A second middle level to upper level inverted trough passes
through the Florida Panhandle into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 25N northward from 87W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1018 MB high pressure center that
is near 28N85W, to the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge passes
through the deep south of Texas, to 19N98W in Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Brownsville. MVFR in Port Isabel and
Falfurrias. LOUISIANA: rain and thunder in Lafayette,New Iberia,
Patterson, in Port Fourchon, and in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/NO
CEILINGS. ALABAMA: MVFR in Mobile. FLORIDA: rain in Pensacola.
rain and thunder in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through the
southeastern Bahamas, across southeastern Cuba and the Windward
Passage, to 16N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to
upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 16N
northward. Convective Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong within 30 NM on either side of the line from 10N82W to
14N85W, from the waters that are just to the north of Panama,
inland to northern Nicaragua.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.81 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.23 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.14 in
Bermuda, 0.07 in Trinidad, 0.06 in Monterrey in Mexico, 0.02 in
Tegucigalpa, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level southwesterly wind flow is moving across the
area. The upper level trough is just to the west of the area.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N to 25N
between 70W and 80W, and in eastern sections of the Dominican
Republic.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...VFR/NO
CEILINGS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/NO CEILINGS.
Santo Domingo and La Romana: few cumulonimbus clouds/MVFR. Punta
Cana: few cumulonimbus clouds/VFR/NO CEILINGS. Santiago and
Puerto Plata: VFR/NO CEILINGS.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current trough
and cyclonic wind flow, that are cutting across Hispaniola from
the Atlantic Ocean, will remain across the area for the next 48
hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that southwesterly
wind flow will move across Hispaniola, with an eastern Caribbean
Sea east-to-west oriented ridge, for the next 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that day one will consist of broad
southeast-to-south wind flow. Day two will consist of broad east-
to-southeast wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N69W, to the southeastern
Bahamas, to southeastern Cuba and the Windward Passage, into the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 25N northward between 62W and
70W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N northward from 60W
westward.

One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N40W. A
second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N50W and
weakening with time. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the area from 25N northward between 30W and 54W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
23N northward between Africa and 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
mt

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