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AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9 TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT. WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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