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AXNT20 KNHC 282320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 07N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 52W- 59W. LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ZONE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS WAVE TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N20W. FROM THIS POINT...THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. TO THE E...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E GULF. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI WITH AXIS ALONG 89W AND THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SECOND TROUGH MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS NW GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 13N AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST. EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.


...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THIS LOW FROM 30N67W TO 23N69W. ANOTHER WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N31W BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOWS TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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