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000
AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 31.1N 79.4W at 28/2100 UTC or about 108 NM south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Bonnie is a sheared storm thus convection is mostly nw of the center along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-34N between 79W-82W. See latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 28W/29W from 03N-13N moving west near 15 kt. Wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 5N-8N between 27W-31W.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 59W/60W south of 9N to inland over Guyana South America moving west 10-15 kt. Wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean extends along 77W south of 14N to inland over Colombia moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a 700 mb trough south of 11N. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 07N16W to 06N28W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 05N30W to 04N40W to South America near 04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of west Africa from 08N-12N between 05W-15W due to the monsoon trough.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N85W. A 1002 mb low is centered over central Mexico near 25N103W. The surface pressure gradient tightens over the western Gulf, thus 15-20 kt SE winds are over the W Gulf west of 90W. The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt SE winds. Scattered moderate convection is over southern Louisiana from 29N-31N between 88W- 94W. Further south, clusters of scattered moderate to convection are inland over Mexico between 96W-101W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south Florida, and over west Cuba. Fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is over Texas and the W Gulf. Elsewhere, an upper level trough is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to dissipate and another high to form over N Louisiana.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean along 77W. See above. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-15 kt tradewinds. Presently scattered moderate convection is inland over Panama, Costa Rica, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is are over the eastern Caribbean east of 68W. In the upper levels the base of an upper level trough is along 75W. Upper level diffluence east of the axis is enhancing the convection over the eastern Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move west to the Eastern Pacific. Also expect an upper level low to be over the N Bahamas with continued diffluence and convection over the eastern Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are over the island. Expect more convection over the next 24 hours due to upper level diffluence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Over the central Atlantic a 1025 mb high is centered near 29N48W. Another 1025 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N31W. A weak 1022 low is centered near 27N36W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the center. Another weak 1022 mb low is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N25W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence southeast of the Florida upper level low is producing isolated moderate convection north of Hispaniola from 20N-28N between 65W-76W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Formosa

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