Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 272015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W ALONG A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO 21N76W. THIS GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 6N10W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 3W-14W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W- 22W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 28W-44W.




...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE SE GULF. COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...TEXAS...AND MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N76W TO 17N80W TO THE N COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM HAITI AT 20N73W TO COSTA RICA AT 11N83W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N-17N W OF 79W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TOP OF A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY. FURTHER E...TRADEWINDS ARE ADVECTING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER ALL OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SOURCES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA AT 21N76W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 31N61W TO HAITI AT 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A LARGE 1043 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N24W. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED FURTHER E AT 27N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MERGE WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

Home