000
AXNT20 KNHC 030528
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has an axis along 27W in the eastern Atlantic,
from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 08 to 10N between 25W and
27W.
Another tropical wave is along 41W, south of 15N, moving westward
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are observed along the southern
portion of the wave axis.
A third tropical wave is along 52W, south of 15N, moving westward
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between
48W and 56W. Scatterometer data showed a modest surge in surface
winds near the wave axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 18N, moving
westward at near 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some convective
activity over Hispaniola.
A tropical wave has crossed Central America and is now across far
eastern Mexico along 92W extending southward into the eastern Pacific
Ocean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N16W and continues SW to 10N27W, then W to near 09N39W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N39W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 09N to 11N between 14W and 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over parts of Florida
and the NE Gulf, where a surface trough is analyzed. The trough
extends 31N84W to 25N86W. High pressure of 1017 mb centered near
27N90W dominates the remainder of the Gulf region. Gentle to locally
moderate cyclonic flow is noted near the trough axis while gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere, except
in the SE Gulf where winds and light and variable.
For the forecast, a weak cold front will sag into the northern Gulf
Thu, then stall. An area of low pressure could develop near the
southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along a
weakening frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall is possible across
portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central
Florida coast.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please, see the
Tropical Wave section for more details.
The Atlantic ridge, combined with the Colombian low, supports fresh
to strong trades across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Venezuela, and also near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic and in
the Windward Passage. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are seen
per recent scatterometer data in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore
Colombia. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds, peaking
around 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the E and SW
Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are blowing over the NW
part of the basin. Dry and stable atmospheric conditions dominate
the area. As a result, low topped trade wind showers are noted
across the region.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the
south-central basin through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over
the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please, see the Tropical Wave section for more information.
The Atlantic forecast area is generally dominated by a large ridge,
with a 1033 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores, and a
another 1025 mb high pressure situated near 29N39W. The pressure
gradient between the Azores High and lower pressures over W Africa
is leading to fresh to strong NE winds across the waters N of 20N
and E of 30W. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are funneling in
between the Canary Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this region.
Winds are generally moderate to fresh S of 25N and W of 70W, becoming
S to SW E of Florida around the western periphery of the ridge,
and increasing to fresh to strong speeds just N of Hispaniola to
about 22N between 70W and 74W, including approaches to the Windward
Passage. The remainder of the Atlantic north of 25N between 30W
and 70W is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An
upper level low spinning NE of the Leeward Islands is generating
and area of showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 23N between 54W
and 60W. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is also affecting
the waters E of Florida and the NW Bahamas.
For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure could develop
along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States by this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development,
but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region
over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward
or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation through the next 7 days.
$$
GR
