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AXNT20 KNHC 212337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N09W TO 06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO W OF OCALA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 27N85W TO 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BE THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE OVER NE FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND OVER W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N66W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 28N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N18W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N18W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST ...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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