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AXNT20 KNHC 162350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 32.3N 57.5W AT 16/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 369 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 55W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WELL N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-37N BETWEEN 56W-60W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N31W TO A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 10N32W TO 7N33W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS RETAINING SOME MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W- 37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N52W TO 10N53W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST PER GOES-R SEVIRI AIRMASS PRODUCT.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 13N27W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N32W TO 9N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N47W TO TRINIDAD AT 10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 10W-18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM ROUGHLY JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO HOUSTON TEXAS TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N WITH CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FINALLY.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN REGION IS SUPPORTING TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15- 20 KT TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...SW HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION WED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES SECTIONS ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST N OF 29N W OF 77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 51W-57W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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