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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ FROM 7N12W TO 4N45W THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W- 38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY THE N MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE FRONT WITH ONLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM IS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W TO JUST S OF HAITI NEAR 17N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE COAST OF HAITI. TRADES ARE 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO WEAKEN.

HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 55W IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 20N52W TO TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ DGS

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