Home


000
WTPZ32 KNHC 181734
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014


...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...



SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA



Home