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WTPZ32 KNHC 190850
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014


...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES...



SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.9N 107.1W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF COLIMA...NAYARIT AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN



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