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WTPZ32 KNHC 200538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014


...POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.3N 108.5W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.



NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$ FORECASTER BEVEN



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