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WTPZ31 KNHC 092030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016


...JAVIER BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...



SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.6N 112.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will continue to move near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast for the next day or so, and the low is expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: The remnant low of Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.



NEXT ADVISORY
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This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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