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REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015


...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...



SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning on Sunday.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida beginning on Sunday.



NEXT ADVISORY
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This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system will be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service.

$$ Forecaster Beven

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