Home


000
WTNT32 KNHC 160251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017


...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph (70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$ Forecaster Berg

Home