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WTPZ22 KNHC 202031
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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