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WTPZ22 KNHC 201431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1500 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 109.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 109.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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