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WTPZ22 KNHC 172050
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO ZIHUATANEJO
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 103.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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