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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 190236
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
0300 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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