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WTPZ21 KNHC 301446
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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