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000
WTNT24 KNHC 222031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
TONIGHT.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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