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WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep convection. In addition, there have been no surface reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt at an elevation of 4000 feet. Therefore, Newton is being declared a post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt. Based on the data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.

There have been some adjustments to the center position based on visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16 kt. The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation. Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight, and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico through tonight. Consult statements from your local National Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings. The Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Berg



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