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WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening in 24 hours. By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf of California.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Stewart



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