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WTPZ45 KNHC 080247
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The deep convection that was near the center of Ivette earlier in the day has been sheared away, with the closest area of thunderstorms about 80 n mi northeast of the center. This is the result of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds near 35 kt in the northern portion of the circulation. Assuming some spin down since that time, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Ivette a tropical depression. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although some deep convection could return near the center, continued strong southwesterly shear and dry air should limit the organization of this activity and cause weakening. Ivette is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate to the east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2 to 3 days.

The shallow cyclone has turned westward in the low-level flow. A general westward motion at about 10 kt is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC official track forecast lies on the southern edge of the guidance, and is adjusted to the south of the previous prediction.

The next advisory on Ivette will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 17.6N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.8N 142.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 17.7N 144.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 17.4N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi



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