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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 281434
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is expected to occur in 36-48 h.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.

This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Stewart

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