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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of the surface circulation. Although deep convection has increased somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt. The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours for some strengthening. Through the remaining portion of the period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to traverse cooler sea surface temperatures. The official intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.

A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt. The cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the next 36 hours or so. After that time, a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast through day 3. By that point in time, the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Roberts

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