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WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops. Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of the cyclone's surface center. Subsequently, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Guidance still indicates that the depression could become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt. The depression is forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days. As the tropical cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a generally north-northwestward direction or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Roberts

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