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WTPZ44 KNHC 271435
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to gale force. With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate in a few days.

The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Global models show a low-level ridge building to the north of the system over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow. The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus.

For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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