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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 101434
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT. ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ FORECASTER AVILA



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