Home


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 280233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Ulika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense overcast. Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner core of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the last several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in the imagery. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed maximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range. Based on that data and a Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased to 55 kt. Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable environmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system could be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday. Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or westerly shear should cause a steady weakening trend. Ulika is forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the models suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

Ulika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a mid- to upper-level low. The upper low is expected to move slowly westward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday. After that time, Ulika is expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn west-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only a small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast. This prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Home