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WTPZ44 KNHC 270250
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Satellite images shows that the cyclone has an impressive band on the west side of the circulation wrapping at least halfway around the center. Microwave data also shows an improved inner core structure, although perhaps the vertical alignment is a bit tilted due to northeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates range between 30 to 35 kt, and with the increased satellite presentation since the last advisory, the wind speed is set to 35 kt for this cycle.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 2 days. Later in the forecast period the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out somewhat, which should induce a weakening trend. The guidance is a little higher than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the trend, remaining close to or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period.

Satellite fixes continue to show an initial motion of 295/10. Madeline should move generally west-northwestward for the next few days around a subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The cyclone is expected to take a westward turn at long range due to a new ridge building in over the Central Pacific. Models are not in great agreement on exactly when that turn will take place, and the details of the motion appear to be related to exactly how strong Madeline becomes. Overall, the model guidance has shifted a little bit to the north on this forecast cycle, and the latest NHC prediction is adjusted in that direction at days 4 and 5.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about 170 miles.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.9N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.6N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 15.4N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 16.1N 141.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 17.0N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$ Forecaster Blake



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