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WTPZ44 KNHC 022050
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better organized during the day since the center is no longer partially exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined. Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so the wind speed is kept at 35 kt. Except for moderate northeasterly shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance is a bit higher than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a hurricane. The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one, between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert on a more northwestward track. While the bulk of the guidance still shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the guidance. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF forecast.

The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part of the state.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$ Forecaster Blake



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