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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie continues to intensify. Satellite images show a well- organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and numerous rain bands surrounding the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses. The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie. In particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4 status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS models thereafter.

Marie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate is 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin. The track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged. Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid- tropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern Mexico through the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the model consensus.

The forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on the global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W 115 KT 135 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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