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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming less organized. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. A west-northwestward motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula. After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow. The model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie during the first few days of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Brown



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