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WTPZ43 KNHC 172033
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult to locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located near Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for more than six hours, and what little convection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by the rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue during the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic conditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an open trough by Thursday. The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for dissipation within the next 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24 hours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move slowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and move into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where dissipation of the system is expected.

For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Stewart

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