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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 251432
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
900 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

The cloud pattern of Lester continues to gradually become better organized, with developing convective banding features surrounding a small CDO and expanding upper-level outflow. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. The global models forecast a low-shear environment for Lester over the next several days, and the cyclone should remain over SSTs warmer than 27 deg C throughout most of the forecast period. Steady strengthening is forecast until late in period when Lester approaches marginal SSTs. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Geostationary and microwave satellite fixes yield a motion estimate of about 295/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Throughout the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge over the eastern North Pacific. A gradual turn toward the west, at a slightly faster pace than shown in the previous official forecast, is anticipated. The NHC track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.6N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 17.5N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.7N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 17.9N 122.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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