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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250231
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better organized during the past several hours with the center of circulation located between two curved bands to its north and south. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4 days while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and in moderate wind shear conditions. Some weakening could occur by the end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.

The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt away from the coast of Mexico. A decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to rebuild to the north of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system to move westward at a faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi



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