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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 270850
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Satellite imagery shows that Lester is continuing to intensity, with an eye gradually becoming better defined inside a central dense overcast. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 75 kt, and that value is the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in the northwestern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 280/9. Lester is south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge, and the dynamical models forecast this feature to build westward to the north of the hurricane through the forecast period. The forecast guidance remains tightly clustered around an almost due west motion with an increase in forward speed during the next several days. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

Lester is expected to remain in a low-shear environment during the forecast period, so the main external factors controlling the intensity will be sea surface temperatures and possible dry air entrainment. During the first 48 hours or so, the hurricane will be over generally warm water. Based on current trends, this part of the intensity forecast has been raised significantly from the previous advisory and calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. After 48 hours, a combination of slightly cooler water and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening. Overall, the new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.9N 117.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.4N 126.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 18.5N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 18.0N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$ Forecaster Beven



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