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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260845
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Georgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning. Central deep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and intensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and through an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening is expected. The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical storm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest numerical model consensus, IVCN.

The slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/4 kt. Georgette is located to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely contributed to the slow northwestward motion. The ridge is predicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone responds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left with some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast period. The official forecast is only slightly slower than the previous one albeit along about the same trajectory. This is close to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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