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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302057
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear. Based on these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough by Friday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the GFS model.

During the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated with Rachel has taken on a southward drift. A slow southwestward motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

This is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

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