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WTPZ43 KNHC 291440
TCDEP3

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester's satellite presentation is quite impressive this morning. The cyclone's eye continues to warm and and the inner core cloud top temperatures have cooled considerably. A blend of 1200 UTC satellite intensity estimates of 105 kt, and a recent ADT objective intensity estimate yields an increased initial intensity of 110 kt for this advisory.

Lester should remain in a low-shear environment for the next several days, with only some gradual decrease in the oceanic water temperature. The majority of the intensity guidance indicate that the hurricane will peak within the next 12 hours or so, then gradual decrease. It appears that the atmospheric environment and the sea surface temperatures match similar criteria for an annular hurricane manifestation. If Lester acquires annular hurricane characteristics, the cyclone could remain stronger longer than reflected in the official forecast and what the intensity guidance suggests. The NHC forecast is adjusted a bit higher in the short term, then shows gradual weakening and falls in line with the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/13. A strong, deep-layer ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a continued westward course during the next 3 days. Beyond that period, the large-scale models indicate some interaction with Madeline to the southwest of Lester which induces a gradual turn toward the west-northwest through day 5. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a multi-model consensus and is quite similar to the previous advisory.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 129.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$ Forecaster Roberts



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