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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281433
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082015
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

The depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been decreasing. The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt. The SHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression. The shear is expected to decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will also be moving into a drier air mass. The intensity and global models show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast still allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime during the next 24 hours. Dissipation could occur earlier than shown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming an open trough by 72 hours.

The subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west- northwestward at about 11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn westward later today and maintain that trajectory until it dissipates in three or four days. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Berg

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