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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 260850
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that convection associated with a low pressure system located about 350 n mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has increased and banding features have also improved during the past 6 hours. Therefore, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 28-30 kt surface wind vectors noted in the eastern quadrant of the low in 0350 UTC ASCAT-B and 0436 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer data. This intensity is also supported by a T2.0 Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/12 kt, which is based primarily on microwave fixes over the past 12 hours. The depression is moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located over the southwestern and south-central United States, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over much cooler waters. As a result, the system is expected to become more vertically shallow and be steered westward by the strong easterly low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is similar to but a little north of the consensus model TVCE.

Tropical Depression Eight-E is currently in a low vertical wind shear environment and over SSTs greater than 29C. Those favorable conditions are expected to continue for at least the next 24-30 hours, which should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen at the typical rate of 20 kt per day. However, due to vertical shear values of less than 3 kt expected for the next 12-18 hours, it would not surprise me if the system undergoes a period of rapid intensification during that time. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than all of the available intensity guidance due to the favorable shear and thermodynamic conditions expected during the next 24 hours, and the current compact structure of the tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.4N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 14.7N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 16.4N 110.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 17.9N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 21.2N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Stewart



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