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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210243
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Paine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep convection for more than 12 hours. Since the cyclone is within an area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep convection is not likely to return. As a result, the system has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on Paine. The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various subjective Dvorak T-numbers. Post-tropical Paine is not expected to be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with Baja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds, resulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt. Now that the remnant low will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn north-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in forward speed. The new official forecast is near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Deep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is expected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California peninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the next day or so. This could enhance the rainfall potential in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Brown

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