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WTPZ42 KNHC 270841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Genevieve continues to battle westerly shear. The low-level center remains exposed to the west of the deep convection, which has been pulsating during the past several hours. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The official forecast calls for little change in strength during the next several days. Although the strength of the system is not expected to change much, the depression is anticipated to become a remnant low in the next 24 h due to the continued influence of shear and dry air. Regeneration into a tropical cyclone is possible, however, in a couple of days when the system moves into a more favorable atmospheric environment.

The depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours, and that motion should persist through the remainder of the forecast period. The official track forecast is slightly slower than the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Genevieve has crossed 140W longitude and, therefore, the next advisory on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Forecast discussions can be found under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.4N 140.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 12.7N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 13.1N 144.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 13.9N 148.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 14.3N 149.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 14.9N 151.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi



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