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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251435
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Satellite images indicate that upper-level westerly winds are impinging on the cyclone, and the low-level center continues to be located to the west of the convection as indicated by the latest SSMI pass. Additional analysis of an earlier ASCAT data indicate that winds associated with Genevieve are 40 knots in a small area to the northeast of the center. This is the intensity assigned to the storm at this time, and it was probably the intensity 6 hours ago. Genevieve appears to have reached it's peak intensity. No further strengthening is anticipated since a band of very strong upper-level westerly winds already to the north of the cyclone is forecast by most of the global models to move closer to Genevieve. This should result in shear and weakening. Neither statistical nor dynamical models forecast a significant intensification of the cyclone.

Genevieve is moving westward at 9 knots. The cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents as a small trough in the westerlies swings eastward breaking the subtropical ridge. However, the ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves out, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general westward track for the next 5 days. During the latter portion of the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. This is the solution provided by most of the track models, and the official forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 12.4N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 13.0N 138.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 13.4N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 13.8N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 14.0N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Avila



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