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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231441
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
900 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Northeasterly shear continue to affect Frank, with the latest microwave data showing the center remaining on the northern edge of the deep convection. The latest Dvorak estimates support maintaining the initial wind speed of 55 kt. The intensity forecast is becoming a little trickier since the latest guidance is showing more northeasterly shear. Consequently, Frank has less of a chance to intensify, and could reach a peak intensity sooner than previously anticipated. The new wind speed forecast has been reduced 5 to 10 kt during the first few days in response to these changes, but is still on the high side of the guidance. Marginal SSTs are expected to cause Frank to weaken in a couple of days, and remnant low status is forecast at day 5 due to the cool waters.

Some timely microwave images indicate the storm continues to move toward the west-northwest at 7 kt. Frank should remain beneath the subtropical ridge for the next several days, which will likely steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward during that time except for a brief westward motion expected in a couple days of days due to the ridge temporarily strengthening. The storm will be passing well south of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours and be near Socorro Island later today. Guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the NHC track forecast remains close to the latest multi-model consensus.

Swells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of Sinaloa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.8N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 19.9N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.7N 114.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.8N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Blake



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