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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.

The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Brennan



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