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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191516
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14...corrected
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

corrected to initial intensity

Data from a SSMI/S satellite at 1144 UTC revealed that the center of Polo was a little farther to the southeast than previously indicated. The initial position has then been adjusted accordingly.

The cloud pattern has not changed very much, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates with an earlier ASCAT pass is consistent in keeping the winds at 60 kt. Most of the guidance show a significant increase in the easterly shear over Polo, and with cooler waters along the expected track of Polo, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Polo will likely be a remnant low in 96 hours or earlier.

The initial motion is a little uncertain given the small adjustment in the initial position. The best estimate is toward the west- northwest or 300 degrees at 6 kt. The mid-level ridge over northern Mexico is forecast to build westward, and this pattern should force Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track during the next several days. The NHC forecast is not very different from the previous one, except during the first 12 hours or so due to the adjustment of the initial position. The rest of the forecast forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and to the average of the GFS and the ECMWF. These models, as well as the official forecast, keep the center of Polo well south of the the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula.







FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.3N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Avila



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