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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270833
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

The eye of Frank disappeared from geostationary imagery around 0600 UTC, indicative of the beginning of a weakening trend. Central convection has been gradually diminishing, and Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing. The current intensity is set at 70 kt which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Frank is starting to traverse a gradient of SSTs, so steady weakening is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN, and calls for the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 hours.

The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast by the global models to remain to the north of Frank for the next few days, with some weakening of this ridge. Therefore, a continued west-northwestward motion with some deceleration is forecast for the next couple of days. After that, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to move generally westward following the low level environmental winds. The official track forecast follows the dynamical consensus aid, TVCN.

Data from an ASCAT overpass indicated that Frank was smaller than previously estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.5N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch



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