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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 271439
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep convection near and northwest of the center. A blend of the TAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable airmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest model consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow afternoon.

Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank should turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and shallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge. Models have shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast follows that trend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Blake



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