Home


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201438
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

The satellite presentation of Lowell has not changed much during the past few hours, with curved convective bands to the south and west of the center but little deep convection in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Some strengthening is still possible in the next day or so while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTs and in an in an environment of low to moderate shear. After that time, the cyclone will move over progressively cooler waters, which should result in gradual weakening to a remnant low by day 4. The NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/04, as Lowell continues moving slowly northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid/upper-level low over southern California. The upper low is forecast to fill and move eastward after 24 hours, but Lowell will maintain a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed through day 3 as the rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north moves westward. A weakening Lowell will then be steered toward the west-northwest by an expansive low-level ridge over the north Pacific. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one through 72 hours and has been adjusted a little to the left after that time, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 19.1N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Brennan



Home