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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 282031
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

Frank has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and is now just a large swirl of low-level stratocumulus clouds. Since the cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry mid-level air and near 22 deg C SSTs, redevelopment of organized deep convection is unlikely. On this basis, Frank has been declared a remnant low. The initial wind speed of 30 kt is based on an average of subjective T/CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Given the very stable conditions ahead of the cyclone, the remnant low should continue to spin down and dissipate by 72 h.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The vertically shallow remnant low should move westward through 24 h, and then toward the west-southwest by weak easterly to northeasterly low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to the TVCN consensus track model.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.1N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 29/0600Z 24.2N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 23.9N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z 23.6N 127.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Stewart



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