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WTPZ42 KNHC 250854
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Convection associated with Greg is currently very disorganized and confined to the northwestern quadrant. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. Greg is forecast to move into a drier air mass, encounter increasing shear, and move over decreasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48-72 h, and this combination should result in the system degenerating to a remnant low during this time. The new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous forecast except to make the cyclone a remnant low at 48 h.

The initial motion is 295/8. Greg should move northwestward for the next day or so on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is again a little to the north of the previous forecast and lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.2N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 16.0N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Beven

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