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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252033
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

The low-level center of the cyclone is located to the west of the convection due to westerly wind shear. The cloud pattern is not well organized with the outflow very limited at this time. T-numbers are still 2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent scatterometer overpass still indicates 35-40 kt winds. The initial intensity is thus kept at 40 knots. Global models as well as statistical guidance continue to forecast an unfavorable environment near the cyclone. In addition, the cyclone is heading to an area of lower sea surface temperatures. This should result in gradual weakening during the next few days.

Genevieve has slowed down a little bit and is now moving westward at 6 knots. An eastward-moving trough in the westerlies is weakening the subtropical ride north of the cyclone, and consequently, the cyclone is forecast to decrease in forward speed during the next day or so. The ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves out, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general west to west-northwest track for the next 5 days. During the latter portion of the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. The official forecast continues very close to the multi-model consensus guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 12.2N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.3N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.5N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 13.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Avila



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