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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Norma is on its way to becoming a remnant low. Satellite images indicate that only a very small amount of deep convection is left, and it is confined to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from a few hours ago. Cool waters and dry air should cause additional weakening, and Norma is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The models agree that the remnant low should continue to spin down and ultimately dissipate in about 2 days.

The depression is now moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion in the low-level flow is expected until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 22.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 22.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 23.2N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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