Home


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250232
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours, and since the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures of around 23 deg C, there is little likelihood of the system making comeback. On this basis, Felicia is being declared a remnant low with 25-kt winds, and this is the last advisory. Continued weakening of the cyclone is expected while it remains over cool waters and ingests drier and more stable air. Dissipation is predicted in 2 to 3 days, following the global models.

The remnant low is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The shallow system is expected to turn west-northwestward on Saturday and westward on Sunday within the low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 23.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1200Z 23.9N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 24.2N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 24.4N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 24.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Home