Home


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280833
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
200 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016

All of the deep convection associated with Frank has dissipated, and since the cyclone is moving over waters cooler than 23 deg C, regeneration of thunderstorms within the circulation is not anticipated. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure area later today. A partial ASCAT pass suggested that the maximum winds were near 35 kt and these tropical-storm-force winds were likely contained to the northeast quadrant of Frank. A continued spin down of the circulation should occur over the next few days with the system dissipating in 72 hours or so.

The center is difficult to locate but the best guess of initial motion is about 290/8 kt. Frank, or its remnant, is forecast to turn toward the west and then west-southwest and decelerate, following the relatively weak low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.6N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 24.0N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 24.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Pasch



Home