Home


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 261458
TCDEP2

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016

After struggling during the last few days, Frank has become much better organized overnight, with deeper and more symmetric convection. A SSM/IS pass from a couple of hours ago also indicated the development of a vertically aligned eye feature. The 12z satellite intensity estimates were 65 kt and 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since that time, the appearance of the cyclone has improved in satellite imagery with the formation of a visible eye, so the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt.

Frank has less than 24 hours before it moves over SSTs cooler than 26C. Although it is not explicitly forecast, the hurricane could become strengthen a little more sometime before weakening begins on Wednesday due to much cooler waters. Frank should lose all of its convection and transition to a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it encounters cold waters of 22-23C. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, primarily due to the initial conditions, then is blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus IVCN.

The hurricane has finally started to move, estimated at 290/8 kt. This general track is predicted for the next couple of days while Frank is steered by a restrengthened subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, Frank is expected to turn more westward when it becomes a shallow remnant low. Little change is made to the previous NHC forecast, except for a small westward shift at long range near the dynamical model consensus.

Frank is the 5th hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific during July. This is the most on record for July, eclipsing the previous record of 4 previously set in 5 other years. Reliable records in the eastern Pacific for hurricanes begin in 1971.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 21.2N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.6N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.4N 119.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.1N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 23.8N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/1200Z 24.4N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Blake



Home