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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231437
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool SSTs and in a stable airmass.

The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 23.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 24.4N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 24/1200Z 25.1N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 25.4N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 25.8N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 27.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ Forecaster Brennan



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