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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 221447
TCDEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

Polo has been absent of any organized deep convection for more than 12 hours. Although a few sporadic showers have developed since 0900 UTC over the western half of the circulation, strong east- southeasterly shear and unfavorable thermodynamic factors should inhibit any significant return of deep convection. Based on the lack of deep convection for some time, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical remnant low on this advisory. The initial wind speed estimate presumes some spin-down of the vortex since late yesterday and is lowered to 25 kt on this advisory. Global models shows Polo degenerating into an open trough by 48 hours, and so does the official forecast.

Polo has been moving west-southwestward or 250/07. The now-shallow vortex is expected to turn southwestward or south-southwestward on the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific prior to dissipation. The track forecast is left of much of the guidance, including the multi-model consensus, given the already greater southerly component of motion.

For additional information on the remnant low of Polo please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 22.2N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain



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